2 supported platforms · Multi-outcome event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — Sep 30?
Dec 31
Super Match links compatible published offers for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — Sep 30 from Polymarket and Pascal. Each named outcome remains separate so an offer is never attached to the wrong choice. Open the original markets to confirm the latest price, wording, deadline and settlement rules.
How to read this event
Each row is a separate named outcome. The indicative midpoint is the centre of the YES range across compatible sources; it is not a guaranteed executable price and the displayed candidates may not form a complete 100% book.
Comparison summary
Report a mismatchComparable outcome field
| Outcome | Midpoint | YES range | Best YES | Sources | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? - Dec 31 | 24.0% | 15.0%–33.0% | YES 15.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| Sep 30Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? - Sep 30 | 14.0% | 6.0%–22.0% | YES 6.0% Pascal ↗ | | |
| Aug 31Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? - Aug 31 | 7.7% | 0.4%–15.0% | YES 0.4% Pascal ↗ | |
Compatibility
What matches — and what may differ
What matches
- Super Match has published these source markets under the same comparison proposition.
- The displayed outcome or contract is linked back to the original platform evidence.
- The comparison includes at least two supported platforms in the active publication.
What may differ
- Eligibility, fees, limits, deadlines and settlement procedures can remain platform-specific.
- Displayed values may have changed since this catalogue snapshot was produced.
Source evidence
Report a mismatchOriginal markets and contract wording
Rules may differ. The source pages below are the definitive evidence for wording, eligibility, closing time and settlement.
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Sep 3022.0%Not Sep 3079.0%
- Closes
- 30 Nov 2026
- Quote type
- Source order-book offer
PascalStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by
Aug 310.4%Not Aug 3199.7%
Dec 3133.0%Not Dec 3168.0%
Sep 306.0%Not Sep 3095.0%
- Closes
- 1 Sep 2026
- Quote type
- Source order-book offer
Independent market research
Displayed values are source observations captured for the publication and may include executable-style offers or platform-reported indicative probabilities. They may have changed since observation. Apparent differences do not establish that transactions could be executed simultaneously or profitably. Contract wording, eligibility, fees, limits and settlement processes remain platform-specific.
Outcome-level source ranges
Outcome ranges and best source values are shown in the Summary table above so each named contract remains aligned with its source evidence.
Details and methodology
How this prediction market comparison was compared
For Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — Sep 30, Prediction Market Radar aligned compatible source markets from Polymarket and Pascal around the same real-world event or outcome. Each named outcome is retained separately so prices are not attached to the wrong outcome. Differences may still reflect new information, participants, wording, deadlines and market liquidity. Before acting, verify exact proposition, outcome wording, deadline and resolution source on every source platform.
- Topic
- World Affairs
- Participating platforms
- PolymarketPascal
- Outcomes
- 3
Market context
What Super Match checks
Super Match keeps source wording, outcomes, deadlines and settlement evidence attached to each offer. Similar headlines are not treated as equivalent when those details conflict.
Keep exploring