Super Match links compatible published offers for Which companies will the US take a stake in from Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini Predictions. Each named outcome remains separate so an offer is never attached to the wrong choice. Open the original markets to confirm the latest price, wording, deadline and settlement rules.

Platforms3participating sources

Closing date1 Jan 2027published comparison close

Comparable outcomes35validated outcome rows

How to read this event

Each row is a separate named outcome. The indicative midpoint is the centre of the YES range across compatible sources; it is not a guaranteed executable price and the displayed candidates may not form a complete 100% book.

Comparison summary

Comparable outcome field

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Outcome	Midpoint	YES range	Best YES	Sources
RigettiWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Rigetti	91.7%	91.3%–92.0%	YES 91.3% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
GlobalFoundriesWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - GlobalFoundries	89.9%	89.8%–90.0%	YES 89.8% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
GlobalFoundriesWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - GlobalFoundries	89.0%	88.0%–90.0%	YES 88.0% Kalshi ↗	3 linked sources
Unusual MachinesWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Unusual Machines	87.8%	87.0%–88.6%	YES 87.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
D-WaveWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - D-Wave	85.3%	85.0%–85.6%	YES 85.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
D-Wave QuantumWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - D-Wave Quantum	83.5%	83.0%–84.0%	YES 83.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Rigetti ComputingWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Rigetti Computing	80.0%	79.0%–81.0%	YES 79.0% Kalshi ↗	2 linked sources
Unusual MachinesWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Unusual Machines	63.5%	40.0%–87.0%	YES 40.0% Kalshi ↗	2 linked sources
OpenAIWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - OpenAI	44.8%	23.0%–66.6%	YES 23.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
AndurilWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Anduril	24.8%	19.0%–30.6%	YES 19.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
AndurilWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Anduril	22.5%	19.0%–26.0%	YES 19.0% Polymarket ↗	3 linked sources
IonQWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - IonQ	16.3%	16.0%–16.6%	YES 16.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
IonQWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - IonQ	15.5%	15.0%–16.0%	YES 15.0% Kalshi ↗	3 linked sources
TSMCWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - TSMC	15.5%	12.0%–19.0%	YES 12.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	3 linked sources
NvidiaWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Nvidia	14.3%	14.0%–14.6%	YES 14.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
PalantirWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Palantir	14.3%	12.0%–16.6%	YES 12.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
PalantirWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Palantir	13.5%	12.0%–15.0%	YES 12.0% Polymarket ↗	3 linked sources
MicronWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Micron	13.0%	9.0%–17.0%	YES 9.0% Polymarket ↗	3 linked sources
Lockheed MartinWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Lockheed Martin	12.5%	12.0%–13.0%	YES 12.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	3 linked sources
TSMCWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - TSMC	12.3%	11.6%–13.0%	YES 11.6% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
Lockheed MartinWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Lockheed Martin	11.8%	10.6%–13.0%	YES 10.6% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
AnthropicWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Anthropic	11.3%	9.0%–13.6%	YES 9.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
SpaceXWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - SpaceX	10.3%	9.6%–11.0%	YES 9.6% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
BoeingWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Boeing	9.8%	9.6%–10.0%	YES 9.6% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
BoeingWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Boeing	9.5%	8.0%–11.0%	YES 8.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	3 linked sources
Freeport-McMoRanWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Freeport-McMoRan	9.3%	8.6%–10.0%	YES 8.6% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
MicronWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Micron	9.3%	9.0%–9.6%	YES 9.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
Freeport-McMoRanWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Freeport-McMoRan	9.0%	8.0%–10.0%	YES 8.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	3 linked sources
TikTok USWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - TikTok US	9.0%	8.0%–10.0%	YES 8.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Eli LillyWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Eli Lilly	6.5%	5.0%–8.0%	YES 5.0% Polymarket ↗	3 linked sources
PfizerWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Pfizer	6.0%	5.0%–7.0%	YES 5.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	3 linked sources
PfizerWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Pfizer	5.8%	5.6%–6.0%	YES 5.6% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources
TikTok US / BytedanceWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - TikTok US / Bytedance	5.4%	5.0%–5.8%	YES 5.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
Eli LillyWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Eli Lilly	5.3%	5.0%–5.6%	YES 5.0% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
SamsungWhich companies will the US take a stake in? - Samsung	5.2%	4.6%–5.8%	YES 4.6% Pascal ↗	2 linked sources

Compatibility

What matches — and what may differ

What matches

Super Match has published these source markets under the same comparison proposition.
The displayed outcome or contract is linked back to the original platform evidence.
The comparison includes at least two supported platforms in the active publication.

What may differ

Eligibility, fees, limits, deadlines and settlement procedures can remain platform-specific.
Displayed values may have changed since this catalogue snapshot was produced.

Source evidence

Original markets and contract wording

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Rules may differ. The source pages below are the definitive evidence for wording, eligibility, closing time and settlement.

Polymarket

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Anduril19.0%Not Anduril86.0%

Anthropic9.0%Not Anthropic92.0%

Boeing10.0%Not Boeing92.0%

D-Wave85.0%Not D-Wave38.0%

Eli Lilly5.0%Not Eli Lilly97.8%

Freeport-McMoRan10.0%Not Freeport-McMoRan92.0%

GlobalFoundries90.0%Not GlobalFoundries11.5%

IonQ16.0%Not IonQ85.0%

Lockheed Martin13.0%Not Lockheed Martin88.0%

Micron9.0%Not Micron92.0%

Nvidia14.0%Not Nvidia87.0%

OpenAI23.0%Not OpenAI81.0%

Palantir12.0%Not Palantir89.0%

Pfizer6.0%Not Pfizer95.0%

Rigetti92.0%Not Rigetti33.4%

Samsung5.8%Not Samsung97.9%

SpaceX11.0%Not SpaceX93.0%

TikTok US / Bytedance5.0%Not TikTok US / Bytedance97.9%

TSMC13.0%Not TSMC91.0%

Unusual Machines87.0%Not Unusual Machines80.0%

Closes: 31 Dec 2026
Quote type: Source order-book offer

Kalshi

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

Anduril25.0%Not Anduril79.0%

Boeing11.0%Not Boeing92.0%

D-Wave Quantum84.0%Not D-Wave Quantum22.0%

Eli Lilly8.0%Not Eli Lilly95.0%

Freeport-McMoRan8.0%Not Freeport-McMoRan94.0%

GlobalFoundries88.0%Not GlobalFoundries16.0%

IonQ15.0%Not IonQ87.0%

Lockheed Martin13.0%Not Lockheed Martin90.0%

Micron17.0%Not Micron87.0%

Palantir14.0%Not Palantir88.0%

Pfizer7.0%Not Pfizer96.0%

Rigetti Computing79.0%Not Rigetti Computing23.0%

TikTok US10.0%Not TikTok US94.0%

TSMC19.0%Not TSMC87.0%

Unusual Machines40.0%Not Unusual Machines66.0%

Closes: 1 Jan 2027
Quote type: Source order-book offer

Gemini Predictions

Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?

Anduril26.0%Not Anduril78.0%

Boeing8.0%Not Boeing94.0%

D-Wave Quantum83.0%Not D-Wave Quantum21.0%

Eli Lilly6.0%Not Eli Lilly97.0%

Freeport-McMoRan8.0%Not Freeport-McMoRan96.0%

GlobalFoundries90.0%Not GlobalFoundries14.0%

IonQ16.0%Not IonQ86.0%

Lockheed Martin12.0%Not Lockheed Martin92.0%

Micron13.0%Not Micron88.0%

Palantir15.0%Not Palantir87.0%

Pfizer5.0%Not Pfizer98.0%

Rigetti Computing81.0%Not Rigetti Computing23.0%

TikTok US8.0%Not TikTok US93.0%

TSMC12.0%Not TSMC89.0%

Closes: 1 Jan 2027
Quote type: Source order-book offer

Independent market research

Displayed values are source observations captured for the publication and may include executable-style offers or platform-reported indicative probabilities. They may have changed since observation. Apparent differences do not establish that transactions could be executed simultaneously or profitably. Contract wording, eligibility, fees, limits and settlement processes remain platform-specific.

Detailed spreads

Outcome-level source ranges

Outcome ranges and best source values are shown in the Summary table above so each named contract remains aligned with its source evidence.

Details and methodology

How this prediction market comparison was compared

For Which companies will the US take a stake in, Prediction Market Radar aligned compatible source markets from Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini Predictions around the same real-world event or outcome. Each named outcome is retained separately so prices are not attached to the wrong outcome. Differences may still reflect new information, participants, wording, deadlines and market liquidity. Before acting, verify exact proposition, outcome wording, deadline and resolution source on every source platform.

Topic: Business & Finance
Participating platforms: Polymarket Kalshi Gemini Predictions
Outcomes: 35

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