2 supported platforms · Multi-outcome event
Variational FDV one day after launch
$100M
Super Match links compatible published offers for Variational FDV one day after launch from Polymarket and Pascal. Each named outcome remains separate so an offer is never attached to the wrong choice. Open the original markets to confirm the latest price, wording, deadline and settlement rules.
How to read this event
Each row is a separate named outcome. The indicative midpoint is the centre of the YES range across compatible sources; it is not a guaranteed executable price and the displayed candidates may not form a complete 100% book.
Comparison summary
Report a mismatchComparable outcome field
| Outcome | Midpoint | YES range | Best YES | Sources | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100MVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M | 98.0% | 97.9%–98.0% | YES 97.9% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $200MVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M | 95.7% | 95.0%–96.3% | YES 95.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $300MVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $300M | 89.5% | 89.0%–90.0% | YES 89.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $500MVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $500M | 75.0% | 74.0%–76.0% | YES 74.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $800MVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $800M | 56.5% | 54.0%–59.0% | YES 54.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $1BVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $1B | 45.0% | 42.0%–48.0% | YES 42.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $2BVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $2B | 24.8% | 23.5%–26.0% | YES 23.5% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $3BVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $3B | 11.5% | 11.0%–12.0% | YES 11.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $4BVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $4B | 6.1% | 6.0%–6.1% | YES 6.0% Polymarket ↗ | | |
| $5BVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $5B | 3.7% | 3.7%–3.7% | YES 3.7% Polymarket ↗ | |
Compatibility
What matches — and what may differ
What matches
- Super Match has published these source markets under the same comparison proposition.
- The displayed outcome or contract is linked back to the original platform evidence.
- The comparison includes at least two supported platforms in the active publication.
What may differ
- Eligibility, fees, limits, deadlines and settlement procedures can remain platform-specific.
- Displayed values may have changed since this catalogue snapshot was produced.
Source evidence
Report a mismatchOriginal markets and contract wording
Rules may differ. The source pages below are the definitive evidence for wording, eligibility, closing time and settlement.
PolymarketVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$100M97.9%Not $100M3.9%
$1B42.0%Not $1B59.0%
$200M95.0%Not $200M5.1%
$2B23.5%Not $2B81.2%
$300M89.0%Not $300M12.0%
$3B11.0%Not $3B91.4%
$4B6.0%Not $4B95.3%
$500M74.0%Not $500M27.0%
$5B3.7%Not $5B97.2%
$800M54.0%Not $800M48.0%
- Closes
- 1 Jan 2028
- Quote type
- Source order-book offer
PascalVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$100M98.0%Not $100M3.0%
$1B48.0%Not $1B54.0%
$200M96.3%Not $200M5.2%
$2B26.0%Not $2B77.0%
$300M90.0%Not $300M11.0%
$3B12.0%Not $3B91.4%
$4B6.1%Not $4B94.4%
$500M76.0%Not $500M25.0%
$5B3.7%Not $5B97.3%
$800M59.0%Not $800M45.0%
- Closes
- 1 Jan 2028
- Quote type
- Source order-book offer
Independent market research
Displayed values are source observations captured for the publication and may include executable-style offers or platform-reported indicative probabilities. They may have changed since observation. Apparent differences do not establish that transactions could be executed simultaneously or profitably. Contract wording, eligibility, fees, limits and settlement processes remain platform-specific.
Outcome-level source ranges
Outcome ranges and best source values are shown in the Summary table above so each named contract remains aligned with its source evidence.
Details and methodology
How this science and technology prediction market was compared
For Variational FDV one day after launch, Prediction Market Radar aligned compatible source markets from Polymarket and Pascal around the same scientific or technological milestone. Each named outcome is retained separately so prices are not attached to the wrong outcome. Differences may still reflect new evidence, technical definitions, announcement timing and market depth. Before acting, verify milestone definition, measurement standard, deadline and authoritative source on every source platform.
- Topic
- Cryptocurrency
- Participating platforms
- PolymarketPascal
- Outcomes
- 10
Market context
What Super Match checks
Super Match keeps source wording, outcomes, deadlines and settlement evidence attached to each offer. Similar headlines are not treated as equivalent when those details conflict.
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