Super Match links compatible published offers for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 from Polymarket and Gemini Predictions. Each named outcome remains separate so an offer is never attached to the wrong choice. Open the original markets to confirm the latest price, wording, deadline and settlement rules.

Platforms2participating sources

Closing date10 Oct 2026published comparison close

Comparable outcomes23validated outcome rows

How to read this event

Each row is a separate named outcome. The indicative midpoint is the centre of the YES range across compatible sources; it is not a guaranteed executable price and the displayed candidates may not form a complete 100% book.

Comparison summary

Comparable outcome field

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Outcome	Midpoint	YES range	Best YES	Sources
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)	24.0%	24.0%–24.0%	YES 24.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)	13.0%	13.0%–13.0%	YES 13.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Save the ChildrenNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Save the Children	13.0%	13.0%–13.0%	YES 13.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Yulia NavalnayaNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Yulia Navalnaya	8.0%	7.0%–9.0%	YES 7.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Mykola Kuleba / Save UkraineNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine	7.0%	7.0%–7.0%	YES 7.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Yulia NavalnayaNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Yulia Navalnaya	7.0%	7.0%–7.0%	YES 7.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Volodymyr ZelenskyyNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Volodymyr Zelenskyy	6.4%	4.7%–8.0%	YES 4.7% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
Centre for Humanitarian DialogueNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue	6.0%	6.0%–6.0%	YES 6.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
International Criminal CourtNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - International Criminal Court	6.0%	6.0%–6.0%	YES 6.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Volodymyr ZelenskyyNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Volodymyr Zelenskyy	6.0%	4.0%–8.0%	YES 4.0% Kalshi ↗	2 linked sources
Narges MohammadiNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Narges Mohammadi	5.0%	5.0%–5.0%	YES 5.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
UNRWANobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - UNRWA	5.0%	5.0%–5.0%	YES 5.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
UNRWANobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - UNRWA	4.7%	4.4%–5.0%	YES 4.4% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
Committee to Protect JournalistsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Committee to Protect Journalists	4.0%	4.0%–4.0%	YES 4.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Donald TrumpNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Donald Trump	4.0%	4.0%–4.0%	YES 4.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Donald TrumpNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Donald Trump	3.2%	2.3%–4.0%	YES 2.3% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources
Francesca AlbaneseNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Francesca Albanese	3.0%	3.0%–3.0%	YES 3.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
International Court of Justice (ICJ)Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - International Court of Justice (ICJ)	3.0%	3.0%–3.0%	YES 3.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Dario AmodeiNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Dario Amodei	2.0%	2.0%–2.0%	YES 2.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Sam AltmanNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Sam Altman	2.0%	2.0%–2.0%	YES 2.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Elon MuskNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Elon Musk	1.5%	1.0%–2.0%	YES 1.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
European UnionNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - European Union	1.0%	1.0%–1.0%	YES 1.0% Gemini Predictions ↗	2 linked sources
Elon MuskNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 - Elon Musk	0.6%	0.2%–1.0%	YES 0.2% Polymarket ↗	2 linked sources

Compatibility

What matches — and what may differ

What matches

Super Match has published these source markets under the same comparison proposition.
The displayed outcome or contract is linked back to the original platform evidence.
The comparison includes at least two supported platforms in the active publication.

What may differ

Eligibility, fees, limits, deadlines and settlement procedures can remain platform-specific.
Displayed values may have changed since this catalogue snapshot was produced.

Source evidence

Original markets and contract wording

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Rules may differ. The source pages below are the definitive evidence for wording, eligibility, closing time and settlement.

Polymarket

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Donald Trump2.3%Not Donald Trump97.8%

Elon Musk0.2%Not Elon Musk99.9%

UNRWA4.4%Not UNRWA95.8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy4.7%Not Volodymyr Zelenskyy95.4%

Yulia Navalnaya9.0%Not Yulia Navalnaya92.0%

Closes: 10 Oct 2026
Quote type: Source order-book offer

Gemini Predictions

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue6.0%Not Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue95.0%

Committee to Protect Journalists4.0%Not Committee to Protect Journalists97.0%

Dario Amodei2.0%Not Dario Amodei5.0%

Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)13.0%Not Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)89.0%

Donald Trump4.0%Not Donald Trump97.0%

Elon Musk1.0%Not Elon Musk99.0%

European Union1.0%Not European Union99.0%

Francesca Albanese3.0%Not Francesca Albanese98.0%

International Court of Justice (ICJ)3.0%Not International Court of Justice (ICJ)98.0%

International Criminal Court6.0%Not International Criminal Court96.0%

Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine7.0%Not Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine94.0%

Narges Mohammadi5.0%Not Narges Mohammadi96.0%

Sam Altman2.0%Not Sam Altman99.0%

Save the Children13.0%Not Save the Children88.0%

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)24.0%Not Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)78.0%

UNRWA5.0%Not UNRWA96.0%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy8.0%Not Volodymyr Zelenskyy93.0%

Yulia Navalnaya7.0%Not Yulia Navalnaya94.0%

Closes: 9 Oct 2026
Quote type: Source order-book offer

Independent market research

Displayed values are source observations captured for the publication and may include executable-style offers or platform-reported indicative probabilities. They may have changed since observation. Apparent differences do not establish that transactions could be executed simultaneously or profitably. Contract wording, eligibility, fees, limits and settlement processes remain platform-specific.

Detailed spreads

Outcome-level source ranges

Outcome ranges and best source values are shown in the Summary table above so each named contract remains aligned with its source evidence.

Details and methodology

How this prediction market comparison was compared

For Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026, Prediction Market Radar aligned compatible source markets from Polymarket and Gemini Predictions around the same real-world event or outcome. Each named outcome is retained separately so prices are not attached to the wrong outcome. Differences may still reflect new information, participants, wording, deadlines and market liquidity. Before acting, verify exact proposition, outcome wording, deadline and resolution source on every source platform.

Topic: Other
Participating platforms: Polymarket Gemini Predictions
Outcomes: 23

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